An SEC Form 8-K Item 1.05 filing dated after issuance and on or before 2027-01-11 names a specific CVE as the initial access vector of the disclosed incident.
OPEN · EXPERIMENTAL
- id
- SO-2026-012
- class
- EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION
- claim
- An SEC Form 8-K Item 1.05 filing dated after issuance and on or before 2027-01-11 names a specific CVE as the initial access vector of the disclosed incident.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.2
- benchmark
- 0.15
- benchmark kind
- ANALYST_PRIOR
- benchmark basis
- Registry base: two Item 1.05 filings read since the Friday pass began, neither names a vector; filings generally avoid technical detail. Judgment.
- adjustment
- 0.05
- resolution rule
- YES if any Item 1.05 filing in the window contains a CVE identifier in the incident description.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- OPEN
- outcome date
- Not recorded
- outcome basis
- Not recorded
- brier
- Not recorded
- benchmark brier
- Not recorded
- resolution source
- EXTERNAL
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Over-forecast would overstate disclosure specificity.
- ledger hash
- 3e24f4755a2f5baa
- revision log
- record links