ENISA EUVD lists as exploited a 2026 CVE that is absent from the CISA KEV catalog for 14 or more consecutive days, as observed by CHQ's daily second-catalog check, on or before 2027-01-11.
OPEN · EXPERIMENTAL
- id
- SO-2026-011
- class
- EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION
- claim
- ENISA EUVD lists as exploited a 2026 CVE that is absent from the CISA KEV catalog for 14 or more consecutive days, as observed by CHQ's daily second-catalog check, on or before 2027-01-11.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.25
- benchmark
- 0.2
- benchmark kind
- ANALYST_PRIOR
- benchmark basis
- Registry base: four daily checks since 8 Oct, EUVD mirrored CISA in all four (small n). Tests the second catalog's stated role as a discovery source.
- adjustment
- 0.05
- resolution rule
- YES if the daily check records such a CVE with first-sight and 14-day-later absence from CISA both inside the window.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- OPEN
- outcome date
- Not recorded
- outcome basis
- Not recorded
- brier
- Not recorded
- benchmark brier
- Not recorded
- resolution source
- EXTERNAL
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Over-forecast would overstate the second catalog's independent value.
- ledger hash
- 0766ca789407538f
- revision log
- record links