The CISA KEV catalog goes five or more consecutive calendar days without a new release at least once between 2026-10-14 and 2027-01-11.
OPEN · EXPERIMENTAL
- id
- SO-2026-010
- class
- EVENT
- claim
- The CISA KEV catalog goes five or more consecutive calendar days without a new release at least once between 2026-10-14 and 2027-01-11.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.8
- benchmark
- 0.7
- benchmark kind
- ANALYST_PRIOR
- benchmark basis
- Registry base: one four-day gap in the era (4 to 8 Oct); the window contains Thanksgiving and the Christmas period, during which releases have historically thinned. Era-wide gap distribution to be computed at the Q4 audit.
- adjustment
- 0.1
- resolution rule
- YES if two consecutive catalogVersion dateReleased values in the KEV JSON history differ by five or more days within the window.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- OPEN
- outcome date
- Not recorded
- outcome basis
- Not recorded
- brier
- Not recorded
- benchmark brier
- Not recorded
- resolution source
- EXTERNAL
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Over-forecast would overstate how often the discovery authority goes quiet.
- ledger hash
- 8925dfcfe67ce2fc
- revision log
- record links