Citrix NetScaler receives at least one further CISA KEV entry (any CVE) with dateAdded after 2026-10-13 and on or before 2027-01-11.
OPEN · EXPERIMENTAL
- id
- SO-2026-009
- class
- EVENT
- claim
- Citrix NetScaler receives at least one further CISA KEV entry (any CVE) with dateAdded after 2026-10-13 and on or before 2027-01-11.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.8
- benchmark
- 0.9
- benchmark kind
- HISTORICAL_COMPARATOR
- benchmark basis
- Registry base: six NetScaler catalog rows in 7.5 months (about 0.8 per month); Poisson at 2.4 per 90 days gives 0.91; shaded down because the last three entries cluster in nine days and may have exhausted a research seam.
- adjustment
- -0.1
- resolution rule
- YES if the KEV JSON contains a NetScaler entry with dateAdded in the window.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- OPEN
- outcome date
- Not recorded
- outcome basis
- Not recorded
- brier
- Not recorded
- benchmark brier
- Not recorded
- resolution source
- EXTERNAL
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Under-forecast would understate a vendor base rate the record already shows.
- ledger hash
- 9c2bcfe834e02bed
- revision log
- record links