PaperCut CVE-2026-82077 (post-authentication RCE, fixed in 26.0.5) is added to the CISA KEV catalog on or before 2027-01-11.
OPEN · EXPERIMENTAL
- id
- SO-2026-008
- class
- EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION
- claim
- PaperCut CVE-2026-82077 (post-authentication RCE, fixed in 26.0.5) is added to the CISA KEV catalog on or before 2027-01-11.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.3
- benchmark
- 0.25
- benchmark kind
- ANALYST_PRIOR
- benchmark basis
- Judgment. Post-auth flaw at a product with two exploited sibling flaws and public research; no exploitation stated. Post-auth flaws reach the catalog less often than pre-auth.
- adjustment
- 0.05
- resolution rule
- YES if CISA KEV lists CVE-2026-82077 with dateAdded on or before 2027-01-11.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- OPEN
- outcome date
- Not recorded
- outcome basis
- Not recorded
- brier
- Not recorded
- benchmark brier
- Not recorded
- resolution source
- EXTERNAL
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Over-forecast would overstate pivot-to-sibling-flaw behavior.
- ledger hash
- 95bec1474991f096
- revision log
- record links