At least one new SC-2026-006-qualifying instance (exploitation documented before public disclosure, on sources independent for the two dates) at a vendor not in the qualifying set at issuance (PaperCut, Check Point, Zammad, Zimbra, NetScaler) is publicly documented on or before 2027-01-11.
MET · EXPERIMENTAL
This entry resolved on CHQ's own admission decision, not on an outside source.
- id
- SO-2026-007
- class
- EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION
- claim
- At least one new SC-2026-006-qualifying instance (exploitation documented before public disclosure, on sources independent for the two dates) at a vendor not in the qualifying set at issuance (PaperCut, Check Point, Zammad, Zimbra, NetScaler) is publicly documented on or before 2027-01-11.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.8
- benchmark
- 0.86
- benchmark kind
- HISTORICAL_COMPARATOR
- benchmark basis
- Registry base: five qualifying vendors in 7.5 months, two new in the last three weeks; Poisson at 2 per 90 days gives 0.86; shaded down for the new-vendor constraint.
- adjustment
- -0.06
- resolution rule
- YES if the registry records a new qualifying instance at a sixth vendor with both dates sourced and public after issuance.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- MET
- outcome date
- 2026-10-19
- outcome basis
- Two instances at vendors outside the issuance set (Ivanti, BeyondTrust) were counted at the Issue 43 cutoff on 19 October 2026; both publications post-date issuance. The entry resolved on a CHQ admission decision.
- brier
- 0.04
- benchmark brier
- 0.0196
- resolution source
- ENDOGENOUS
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Under-forecast would understate the timing condition's base rate.
- ledger hash
- 337e5cf2b30d380c
- revision log
- record links