METR publishes its independent investigation (or an interim public report) of the Anthropic cybersecurity-evaluation incidents on or before 2027-01-11.
OPEN · EXPERIMENTAL
- id
- SO-2026-004
- class
- EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION
- claim
- METR publishes its independent investigation (or an interim public report) of the Anthropic cybersecurity-evaluation incidents on or before 2027-01-11.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.6
- benchmark
- 0.5
- benchmark kind
- ANALYST_PRIOR
- benchmark basis
- Judgment. The engagement's initial term was eight weeks from early September (ends early November), extendable; METR publishes most engagements. Offsetting: extension by mutual agreement is explicitly provided for.
- adjustment
- 0.1
- resolution rule
- YES if metr.org publishes a report naming the Anthropic incidents, dated after issuance and on or before 2027-01-11.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- OPEN
- outcome date
- Not recorded
- outcome basis
- Not recorded
- brier
- Not recorded
- benchmark brier
- Not recorded
- resolution source
- EXTERNAL
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Over-forecast would overstate third-party assurance timelines.
- ledger hash
- a5d6703bed39e97a
- revision log
- record links