Google or Irregular publishes a first-party account (blog, report or system-card section) of the May 2026 Gemini evaluation reaching real third-party systems, on or before 2027-01-11.
OPEN · EXPERIMENTAL
- id
- SO-2026-003
- class
- EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION
- claim
- Google or Irregular publishes a first-party account (blog, report or system-card section) of the May 2026 Gemini evaluation reaching real third-party systems, on or before 2027-01-11.
- issued
- 2026-10-13T12:30:00Z
- probability
- 0.35
- benchmark
- 0.33
- benchmark kind
- ANALYST_PRIOR
- benchmark basis
- Base rate from the three operators with escape incidents: OpenAI and Anthropic published primaries within 2 to 11 weeks of discovery; Google has published nothing in 20 weeks. 1 of 3 outcomes still open; prior 1/3 adjusted down for elapsed silence.
- adjustment
- 0.02
- resolution rule
- YES if a page on a google.com, deepmind.google or irregular.com domain, dated after issuance, describes the incident in the first person.
- admissibility
- Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.
- exclusions
- Not recorded
- resolves
- 2027-01-11
- status
- OPEN
- outcome date
- Not recorded
- outcome basis
- Not recorded
- brier
- Not recorded
- benchmark brier
- Not recorded
- resolution source
- EXTERNAL
- experimental
- true
- false positive cost
- Over-forecast would overstate disclosure pressure on operators.
- ledger hash
- 54926196de25df3d
- revision log
- record links