# Forecast outcome class RETROSPECTIVE\_DISCOVERY: a forecast satisfied by evidence public before issuance and absent from the registry at issuance is scored RETROSPECTIVE\_DISCOVERY, not MET, and excluded from the hit rate. Applies prospectively, to misses and hits alike

- **Artifact ID:** CHQ-FORECAST-RETRO-2026-001
- **Status:** DECLARED v1.0; amends the forecast outcome rule
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/governance/chq-forecast-retro-2026-001
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `56cf7f99da4437fcfa726f34c587df23b1a2c927bfb377053d98a49d6833a279`
- **Publication correction:** CHQ-PUB-CORR-2026-001. This digest supersedes `cc72ffb7c3e578b56d321260451dc6850761540c8efb3213c2c397c15003c8ee`; the earlier digest does not verify these bytes.

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "CHQ-FORECAST-RETRO-2026-001",
  "title": "Forecast outcome class RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY: a forecast satisfied by evidence public before issuance and absent from the registry at issuance is scored RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not MET, and excluded from the hit rate. Applies prospectively, to misses and hits alike",
  "class": "FORECAST_RULE",
  "effective": "2026-10-13",
  "published": "2026-10-13",
  "status": "DECLARED v1.0; amends the forecast outcome rule",
  "scope": "Prospective forecast scoring; retrospective discoveries do not count as forecast hits.",
  "rule": "Evidence public before forecast issuance and absent from the registry at issuance is RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not MET, and excluded from the hit rate. Applies prospectively to misses and hits alike.",
  "rationale": null,
  "authority": "analyst declared 2026-10-13; DM ratified 2026-10-13",
  "references": [
    "CHQ-CGS-2026-001"
  ]
}
```