{ "collection_note": "This collection carries the Structural Outlooks. Five Forecast Register claims issued before the collection opened remain open and are not published here at this issue; their records predate the public schema and carry no stated benchmark. Three earlier claims are published as Expectations E-2026-01 to E-2026-03.", "counts": { "open": 14, "resolved": 2, "not_issued": 2 }, "records": [ { "id": "SO-2026-001", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "Atlassian CVE-2026-21589 (unauthenticated file read across eight Data Center products) is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.65, "benchmark": 0.5, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Judgment. Registry bases: disclosure-first exploitation attempts median 1 day (n=5); catalog entry median 3 days after advisory for exploited flaws (n=19). Offsetting: no exploitation claim from any source as of issuance; CISA requires evidence, not likelihood.", "adjustment": 0.15, "resolution_rule": "YES if the CISA KEV JSON lists CVE-2026-21589 with dateAdded on or before 2027-01-11.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "MET", "outcome_date": "2026-10-15", "outcome_basis": "The CISA catalog lists CVE-2026-21589 with a date added of 15 October 2026, two days after issuance; admissible under the event-date rule.", "brier": 0.1225, "benchmark_brier": 0.25, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate how often broad unauthenticated flaws reach the catalog without a telemetry source.", "ledger_hash": "d11ca11b77653f79", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-002", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "n8n CVE-2026-21858 (authentication bypass) is added to the CISA KEV catalog on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.5, "benchmark": 0.5, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Judgment. One vendor-research exploitation claim (VulnCheck) and ~14,000 exposed instances; CISA has admitted single-vendor-telemetry claims before (Huntress, watchTowr) but not reliably. Tests the catalog-coverage observation on the record.", "adjustment": 0, "resolution_rule": "YES if CISA KEV lists CVE-2026-21858 with dateAdded on or before 2027-01-11.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate CISA uptake of single-source claims.", "ledger_hash": "90c0a5799ebe9ff4", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-003", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "Google or Irregular publishes a first-party account (blog, report or system-card section) of the May 2026 Gemini evaluation reaching real third-party systems, on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.35, "benchmark": 0.33, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Base rate from the three operators with escape incidents: OpenAI and Anthropic published primaries within 2 to 11 weeks of discovery; Google has published nothing in 20 weeks. 1 of 3 outcomes still open; prior 1/3 adjusted down for elapsed silence.", "adjustment": 0.02, "resolution_rule": "YES if a page on a google.com, deepmind.google or irregular.com domain, dated after issuance, describes the incident in the first person.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate disclosure pressure on operators.", "ledger_hash": "54926196de25df3d", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-004", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "METR publishes its independent investigation (or an interim public report) of the Anthropic cybersecurity-evaluation incidents on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.6, "benchmark": 0.5, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Judgment. The engagement's initial term was eight weeks from early September (ends early November), extendable; METR publishes most engagements. Offsetting: extension by mutual agreement is explicitly provided for.", "adjustment": 0.1, "resolution_rule": "YES if metr.org publishes a report naming the Anthropic incidents, dated after issuance and on or before 2027-01-11.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate third-party assurance timelines.", "ledger_hash": "a5d6703bed39e97a", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-005", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "An operator other than OpenAI publishes a first-party account, naming the system reached, of a benignly tasked (non-capture-the-flag) agent exceeding its sanctioned authorization against a third party's production system, for an event occurring after 2026-10-13, on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.25, "benchmark": 0.15, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: in 7.5 months, one Grade A benign-task third-party instance (Services Australia), named by the government not the operator; Anthropic 9 Oct withheld names at victims' request. Operators rarely name. Re-issue of retired PR-2026-005 in evidence-publication class.", "adjustment": 0.1, "resolution_rule": "YES if an operator primary dated after issuance names the reached system and the event date is after 2026-10-13; CTF or red-team-tasked escapes do not count.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate operator transparency.", "ledger_hash": "9f28ea8545ff2def", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-006", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "A vendor telemetry or incident-response source (Mandiant/GTIG, Microsoft, Unit 42, Huntress, watchTowr, Sysdig, CrowdStrike, Sophos) publishes, after issuance, an account of an attacker-operated AI agent framework used in a real intrusion that includes recovered agent artifacts (instruction, configuration or prompt files) and a described victim, for an actor other than JadePuffer/Storm-3168, on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.5, "benchmark": 0.4, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: attacker-agent accounts Jul (Sysdig), Sep (GTIG, with artifacts), Sep (Microsoft, no artifacts): roughly one per six weeks, one in three with artifacts. The GTIG 8 Sep report pre-dates issuance and does not count.", "adjustment": 0.1, "resolution_rule": "YES if such a publication dated after issuance meets all four elements (agent framework, real intrusion, recovered artifacts, actor not JadePuffer).", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate how often vendors recover and publish agent artifacts.", "ledger_hash": "4390d1c0c82719f2", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-007", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "At least one new SC-2026-006-qualifying instance (exploitation documented before public disclosure, on sources independent for the two dates) at a vendor not in the qualifying set at issuance (PaperCut, Check Point, Zammad, Zimbra, NetScaler) is publicly documented on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.8, "benchmark": 0.86, "benchmark_kind": "HISTORICAL_COMPARATOR", "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: five qualifying vendors in 7.5 months, two new in the last three weeks; Poisson at 2 per 90 days gives 0.86; shaded down for the new-vendor constraint.", "adjustment": -0.06, "resolution_rule": "YES if the registry records a new qualifying instance at a sixth vendor with both dates sourced and public after issuance.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "MET", "outcome_date": "2026-10-19", "outcome_basis": "Two instances at vendors outside the issuance set (Ivanti, BeyondTrust) were counted at the Issue 43 cutoff on 19 October 2026; both publications post-date issuance. The entry resolved on a CHQ admission decision.", "brier": 0.04, "benchmark_brier": 0.0196, "resolution_source": "ENDOGENOUS", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Under-forecast would understate the timing condition's base rate.", "ledger_hash": "337e5cf2b30d380c", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [ "CHQ-RAT-2026-043", "RA-2026-043-01", "RA-2026-043-02" ] }, { "id": "SO-2026-008", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "PaperCut CVE-2026-82077 (post-authentication RCE, fixed in 26.0.5) is added to the CISA KEV catalog on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.3, "benchmark": 0.25, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Judgment. Post-auth flaw at a product with two exploited sibling flaws and public research; no exploitation stated. Post-auth flaws reach the catalog less often than pre-auth.", "adjustment": 0.05, "resolution_rule": "YES if CISA KEV lists CVE-2026-82077 with dateAdded on or before 2027-01-11.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate pivot-to-sibling-flaw behavior.", "ledger_hash": "95bec1474991f096", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-009", "class": "EVENT", "claim": "Citrix NetScaler receives at least one further CISA KEV entry (any CVE) with dateAdded after 2026-10-13 and on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.8, "benchmark": 0.9, "benchmark_kind": "HISTORICAL_COMPARATOR", "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: six NetScaler catalog rows in 7.5 months (about 0.8 per month); Poisson at 2.4 per 90 days gives 0.91; shaded down because the last three entries cluster in nine days and may have exhausted a research seam.", "adjustment": -0.1, "resolution_rule": "YES if the KEV JSON contains a NetScaler entry with dateAdded in the window.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Under-forecast would understate a vendor base rate the record already shows.", "ledger_hash": "9c2bcfe834e02bed", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-010", "class": "EVENT", "claim": "The CISA KEV catalog goes five or more consecutive calendar days without a new release at least once between 2026-10-14 and 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.8, "benchmark": 0.7, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: one four-day gap in the era (4 to 8 Oct); the window contains Thanksgiving and the Christmas period, during which releases have historically thinned. Era-wide gap distribution to be computed at the Q4 audit.", "adjustment": 0.1, "resolution_rule": "YES if two consecutive catalogVersion dateReleased values in the KEV JSON history differ by five or more days within the window.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate how often the discovery authority goes quiet.", "ledger_hash": "8925dfcfe67ce2fc", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-011", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "ENISA EUVD lists as exploited a 2026 CVE that is absent from the CISA KEV catalog for 14 or more consecutive days, as observed by CHQ's daily second-catalog check, on or before 2027-01-11.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.25, "benchmark": 0.2, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: four daily checks since 8 Oct, EUVD mirrored CISA in all four (small n). Tests the second catalog's stated role as a discovery source.", "adjustment": 0.05, "resolution_rule": "YES if the daily check records such a CVE with first-sight and 14-day-later absence from CISA both inside the window.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate the second catalog's independent value.", "ledger_hash": "0766ca789407538f", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-012", "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION", "claim": "An SEC Form 8-K Item 1.05 filing dated after issuance and on or before 2027-01-11 names a specific CVE as the initial access vector of the disclosed incident.", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.2, "benchmark": 0.15, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: two Item 1.05 filings read since the Friday pass began, neither names a vector; filings generally avoid technical detail. Judgment.", "adjustment": 0.05, "resolution_rule": "YES if any Item 1.05 filing in the window contains a CVE identifier in the incident description.", "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-01-11", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate disclosure specificity.", "ledger_hash": "3e24f4755a2f5baa", "revision_log": [], "record_links": [] }, { "id": "SO-2026-013", "status": "NOT_ISSUED", "revision_log": [ "Number reserved and retired unused at the 26 October 2026 cutoff: a claim on management-plane catalog additions was dropped as a reproduction of a base rate." ] }, { "id": "SO-2026-014", "class": "EVENT", "claim": "A compromise of a single third-party SaaS integration (OAuth app, service principal, delegated credential or integration token held by a vendor), beginning after issuance, is documented as used to access resources in at least three independent customer organizations, by 2027-04-26T12:30Z.", "issued": "2026-10-26T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.65, "benchmark": 0.58, "benchmark_kind": "HISTORICAL_COMPARATOR", "benchmark_basis": "Sample rebuilt under the exact rule: Salesloft/Drift (Aug 2025) and Klue (Jun 2026) qualify; Gainsight held (upstream element unestablished); ConnectWise does not qualify at issuance (Microsoft 21 Oct: privileged access \"in several\" cases, not a documented count of three organizations with resource access). Two in 14 months, Poisson 90-day over six months 0.58; sensitivity with Gainsight 0.72. Analyst adjustment +0.07, stated.", "adjustment": 0.07, "resolution_rule": "YES if a primary source establishes (a) one named upstream integration compromise, (b) resource access in three distinct customer organizations, named or counted on the primary page, (c) upstream compromise began after ISSUED_TS. Tokens without documented access do not resolve YES.", "admissibility": "Primary sources only for (a) and (b); Grade A on (a); events after ISSUED_TS; publications to RESOLUTION_TS.", "exclusions": null, "resolves": "2027-04-26T12:30:00Z", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": false, "false_positive_cost": "A YES on a weak victim count would flatter the EVENT card; the access test is the guard.", "ledger_hash": "90cb7adf89c670ea", "revision_log": [ "2026-11-06 (CHQ-CORR-2026-033): ledger hash corrected from the shared placeholder c2f1ab40c70d9013 to the per-entry digest 90cb7adf89c670ea, recomputed from the declared serialization of identifier, claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule. Claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule unchanged." ], "record_links": [ "CHQ-CORR-2026-033" ] }, { "id": "SO-2026-015", "class": "EVENT", "claim": "A production enterprise AI agent (an AI-driven workflow able to select or execute tool actions against an external system under delegated authority) is publicly confirmed by a first-party source to have performed an unauthorized data transfer or privileged action because of attacker-controlled content encountered during a legitimate task, the occurrence after issuance, by 2027-04-26T12:30Z.", "issued": "2026-10-26T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.35, "benchmark": 0.2, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "Analyst prior, not a frequency: within the frozen corpus at the 22 Oct observation cutoff no row meets all elements in production; known cases are research or red-team. Operator disclosure incentives are weak.", "adjustment": 0.15, "resolution_rule": "YES if first-party sources collectively establish (a) production use, (b) the unauthorized action, outside the principal's authorization as evidenced by policy, configuration, task scope or the principal's statement, (c) the causal chain from injected content to the action, (d) occurrence after ISSUED_TS. Any element on press inference resolves NO.", "admissibility": "Grade A on (a), (b), (c); elements may rest on different first-party sources; exclusions: red-team, bug bounty, demonstrations, evaluation escapes, benign overreach.", "exclusions": "red-team, bug bounty, demonstrations, evaluation escapes, benign overreach.", "resolves": "2027-04-26T12:30:00Z", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": false, "false_positive_cost": "Counting a demonstration or a benign-overreach case would collapse the entry into SC-2026-008 or SC-2026-011.", "ledger_hash": "d64f476e4a706f44", "revision_log": [ "2026-11-06 (CHQ-CORR-2026-033): ledger hash corrected from the shared placeholder c2f1ab40c70d9013 to the per-entry digest d64f476e4a706f44, recomputed from the declared serialization of identifier, claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule. Claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule unchanged." ], "record_links": [ "CHQ-CORR-2026-033" ] }, { "id": "SO-2026-016", "class": "EVENT", "claim": "At least two distinct vendor advisory assurances published after issuance and on or before 2027-01-31T23:59Z, each stating a vulnerability is not known to be exploited, are retrospectively undermined by 2027-04-26T12:30Z by documented exploitation evidence dated before the assurance (same-day pairs only with reliable ordering).", "issued": "2026-10-26T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.5, "benchmark": 0.45, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "One reversal on the conduct ledger since the 27 Aug reset (Ahsay); one held candidate (Microsoft SharePoint). About one per eight weeks at CHQ's collection; Poisson 1.8 expected in a 14-week assurance window gives 0.54 for two or more, shaded down for narrow collection. A prior, stated as such.", "adjustment": 0.05, "resolution_rule": "Counting unit: one vendor, one advisory, one assurance, one undermining evidence item. YES if two or more units satisfy: assurance archived in original wording, published in the assurance window; undermining evidence (vendor revision, catalog listing with exploitation date, responder report) at or before RESOLUTION_TS; exploitation date before the assurance date, or same day with reliable timestamps or independently established ordering; identifiers match. Interpretation: measures reliability as a risk input; no claim of falsity or knowledge.", "admissibility": "Assurances before ISSUED_TS cannot qualify; Grade A or B with stated date on the undermining evidence; exclusions: statements overtaken by later exploitation, severity-only revisions, unarchivable assurances.", "exclusions": "statements overtaken by later exploitation, severity-only revisions, unarchivable assurances.", "resolves": "2027-04-26T12:30:00Z", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": false, "false_positive_cost": "Counting routine exploitability-index revisions would resolve YES in any quarter.", "ledger_hash": "17fc34056e1e81f5", "revision_log": [ "2026-11-06 (CHQ-CORR-2026-033): ledger hash corrected from the shared placeholder c2f1ab40c70d9013 to the per-entry digest 17fc34056e1e81f5, recomputed from the declared serialization of identifier, claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule. Claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule unchanged." ], "record_links": [ "CHQ-CORR-2026-033" ] }, { "id": "SO-2026-017", "class": "EVENT", "claim": "An incident-response or threat-intelligence provider documents a new attack, the modification after issuance, in which a malicious modification of a trusted software distribution channel persisted for less than 60 minutes in at least one window and delivered malicious content to at least one downstream system through that same window, by 2027-04-26T12:30Z. EXPERIMENTAL.", "issued": "2026-10-26T12:30:00Z", "probability": 0.25, "benchmark": 0.2, "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR", "benchmark_basis": "One documented case (AOMEI, GTIG/Mandiant 15 Oct: windows of 10, 6 and 5 minutes; delivery evidenced by endpoint telemetry). 60-minute threshold chosen to test the failure mode shown rather than day-scale compromises. Durations are rarely stated; publication-constrained rate is low.", "adjustment": 0.05, "resolution_rule": "YES if a primary investigation establishes (a) the malicious change, named; (b) duration stated or bounded under 60 minutes for at least one window; (c) delivery to at least one downstream system through that window, evidenced on the system or in provider telemetry, not inferred; (d) modification after ISSUED_TS.", "admissibility": "Grade A on (a) and (c); exclusions: no stated duration; shortest window 60 minutes or longer; typosquat or dependency confusion; research proofs.", "exclusions": "no stated duration; shortest window 60 minutes or longer; typosquat or dependency confusion; research proofs.", "resolves": "2027-04-26T12:30:00Z", "status": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "outcome_basis": null, "brier": null, "benchmark_brier": null, "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL", "experimental": true, "false_positive_cost": "A YES on a modified server with no delivered payload would reward a near miss.", "ledger_hash": "d2c9e86c0519d259", "revision_log": [ "2026-11-06 (CHQ-CORR-2026-033): ledger hash corrected from the shared placeholder c2f1ab40c70d9013 to the per-entry digest d2c9e86c0519d259, recomputed from the declared serialization of identifier, claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule. Claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule unchanged." ], "record_links": [ "CHQ-CORR-2026-033" ] }, { "id": "SO-2026-018", "status": "NOT_ISSUED", "revision_log": [ "Withdrawn before issuance at the 26 October 2026 cutoff: a joint edge-vendor claim reproduced a public base rate; its content was published unscored in Issue No. 44, Section F." ] } ] }