# At least two distinct vendor advisory assurances published after issuance and on or before 2027-01-31T23:59Z, each stating a vulnerability is not known to be exploited, are retrospectively undermined by 2027-04-26T12:30Z by documented exploitation evidence dated before the assurance (same-day pairs only with reliable ordering).

- **Artifact ID:** SO-2026-016
- **Status:** OPEN
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/forecasts/so-2026-016
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `193d8be15599e34c4082c8aebe7ce3aa195065e508b5125acb9a334b335639c5`

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "SO-2026-016",
  "class": "EVENT",
  "claim": "At least two distinct vendor advisory assurances published after issuance and on or before 2027-01-31T23:59Z, each stating a vulnerability is not known to be exploited, are retrospectively undermined by 2027-04-26T12:30Z by documented exploitation evidence dated before the assurance (same-day pairs only with reliable ordering).",
  "issued": "2026-10-26T12:30:00Z",
  "probability": 0.5,
  "benchmark": 0.45,
  "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR",
  "benchmark_basis": "One reversal on the conduct ledger since the 27 Aug reset (Ahsay); one held candidate (Microsoft SharePoint). About one per eight weeks at CHQ's collection; Poisson 1.8 expected in a 14-week assurance window gives 0.54 for two or more, shaded down for narrow collection. A prior, stated as such.",
  "adjustment": 0.05,
  "resolution_rule": "Counting unit: one vendor, one advisory, one assurance, one undermining evidence item. YES if two or more units satisfy: assurance archived in original wording, published in the assurance window; undermining evidence (vendor revision, catalog listing with exploitation date, responder report) at or before RESOLUTION_TS; exploitation date before the assurance date, or same day with reliable timestamps or independently established ordering; identifiers match. Interpretation: measures reliability as a risk input; no claim of falsity or knowledge.",
  "admissibility": "Assurances before ISSUED_TS cannot qualify; Grade A or B with stated date on the undermining evidence; exclusions: statements overtaken by later exploitation, severity-only revisions, unarchivable assurances.",
  "exclusions": "statements overtaken by later exploitation, severity-only revisions, unarchivable assurances.",
  "resolves": "2027-04-26T12:30:00Z",
  "status": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "outcome_basis": null,
  "brier": null,
  "benchmark_brier": null,
  "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL",
  "experimental": false,
  "false_positive_cost": "Counting routine exploitability-index revisions would resolve YES in any quarter.",
  "ledger_hash": "17fc34056e1e81f5",
  "revision_log": [
    "2026-11-06 (CHQ-CORR-2026-033): ledger hash corrected from the shared placeholder c2f1ab40c70d9013 to the per-entry digest 17fc34056e1e81f5, recomputed from the declared serialization of identifier, claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule. Claim, probability, issued timestamp and resolution rule unchanged."
  ],
  "record_links": [
    "CHQ-CORR-2026-033"
  ]
}
```