# An SEC Form 8-K Item 1.05 filing dated after issuance and on or before 2027-01-11 names a specific CVE as the initial access vector of the disclosed incident.

- **Artifact ID:** SO-2026-012
- **Status:** OPEN
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/forecasts/so-2026-012
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `d6b572e4fe0f6481ff8b16a38721e7ddeebccf808e09c619cd0851617895794c`

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "SO-2026-012",
  "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION",
  "claim": "An SEC Form 8-K Item 1.05 filing dated after issuance and on or before 2027-01-11 names a specific CVE as the initial access vector of the disclosed incident.",
  "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z",
  "probability": 0.2,
  "benchmark": 0.15,
  "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR",
  "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: two Item 1.05 filings read since the Friday pass began, neither names a vector; filings generally avoid technical detail. Judgment.",
  "adjustment": 0.05,
  "resolution_rule": "YES if any Item 1.05 filing in the window contains a CVE identifier in the incident description.",
  "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.",
  "exclusions": null,
  "resolves": "2027-01-11",
  "status": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "outcome_basis": null,
  "brier": null,
  "benchmark_brier": null,
  "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL",
  "experimental": true,
  "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate disclosure specificity.",
  "ledger_hash": "3e24f4755a2f5baa",
  "revision_log": [],
  "record_links": []
}
```