# ENISA EUVD lists as exploited a 2026 CVE that is absent from the CISA KEV catalog for 14 or more consecutive days, as observed by CHQ's daily second-catalog check, on or before 2027-01-11.

- **Artifact ID:** SO-2026-011
- **Status:** OPEN
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/forecasts/so-2026-011
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `6d0fa85d7c4b5308daafdcfe3c0eb4ecfccc661076dad6b1ebe9ab2138ea14c1`

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "SO-2026-011",
  "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION",
  "claim": "ENISA EUVD lists as exploited a 2026 CVE that is absent from the CISA KEV catalog for 14 or more consecutive days, as observed by CHQ's daily second-catalog check, on or before 2027-01-11.",
  "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z",
  "probability": 0.25,
  "benchmark": 0.2,
  "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR",
  "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: four daily checks since 8 Oct, EUVD mirrored CISA in all four (small n). Tests the second catalog's stated role as a discovery source.",
  "adjustment": 0.05,
  "resolution_rule": "YES if the daily check records such a CVE with first-sight and 14-day-later absence from CISA both inside the window.",
  "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.",
  "exclusions": null,
  "resolves": "2027-01-11",
  "status": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "outcome_basis": null,
  "brier": null,
  "benchmark_brier": null,
  "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL",
  "experimental": true,
  "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate the second catalog's independent value.",
  "ledger_hash": "0766ca789407538f",
  "revision_log": [],
  "record_links": []
}
```