# The CISA KEV catalog goes five or more consecutive calendar days without a new release at least once between 2026-10-14 and 2027-01-11.

- **Artifact ID:** SO-2026-010
- **Status:** OPEN
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/forecasts/so-2026-010
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `18831379659e60da7a3fe06e2cc5e12f4b81668822f7ec7ef278c86794d554b5`

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "SO-2026-010",
  "class": "EVENT",
  "claim": "The CISA KEV catalog goes five or more consecutive calendar days without a new release at least once between 2026-10-14 and 2027-01-11.",
  "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z",
  "probability": 0.8,
  "benchmark": 0.7,
  "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR",
  "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: one four-day gap in the era (4 to 8 Oct); the window contains Thanksgiving and the Christmas period, during which releases have historically thinned. Era-wide gap distribution to be computed at the Q4 audit.",
  "adjustment": 0.1,
  "resolution_rule": "YES if two consecutive catalogVersion dateReleased values in the KEV JSON history differ by five or more days within the window.",
  "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.",
  "exclusions": null,
  "resolves": "2027-01-11",
  "status": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "outcome_basis": null,
  "brier": null,
  "benchmark_brier": null,
  "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL",
  "experimental": true,
  "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate how often the discovery authority goes quiet.",
  "ledger_hash": "8925dfcfe67ce2fc",
  "revision_log": [],
  "record_links": []
}
```