# At least one new SC-2026-006-qualifying instance (exploitation documented before public disclosure, on sources independent for the two dates) at a vendor not in the qualifying set at issuance (PaperCut, Check Point, Zammad, Zimbra, NetScaler) is publicly documented on or before 2027-01-11.

- **Artifact ID:** SO-2026-007
- **Status:** MET
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/forecasts/so-2026-007
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `5e0f125f996ae8915cd90a7bc8e4821f17cd92e3df8de88c578fda0133e2cd8b`

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "SO-2026-007",
  "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION",
  "claim": "At least one new SC-2026-006-qualifying instance (exploitation documented before public disclosure, on sources independent for the two dates) at a vendor not in the qualifying set at issuance (PaperCut, Check Point, Zammad, Zimbra, NetScaler) is publicly documented on or before 2027-01-11.",
  "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z",
  "probability": 0.8,
  "benchmark": 0.86,
  "benchmark_kind": "HISTORICAL_COMPARATOR",
  "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: five qualifying vendors in 7.5 months, two new in the last three weeks; Poisson at 2 per 90 days gives 0.86; shaded down for the new-vendor constraint.",
  "adjustment": -0.06,
  "resolution_rule": "YES if the registry records a new qualifying instance at a sixth vendor with both dates sourced and public after issuance.",
  "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.",
  "exclusions": null,
  "resolves": "2027-01-11",
  "status": "MET",
  "outcome_date": "2026-10-19",
  "outcome_basis": "Two instances at vendors outside the issuance set (Ivanti, BeyondTrust) were counted at the Issue 43 cutoff on 19 October 2026; both publications post-date issuance. The entry resolved on a CHQ admission decision.",
  "brier": 0.04,
  "benchmark_brier": 0.0196,
  "resolution_source": "ENDOGENOUS",
  "experimental": true,
  "false_positive_cost": "Under-forecast would understate the timing condition's base rate.",
  "ledger_hash": "337e5cf2b30d380c",
  "revision_log": [],
  "record_links": [
    "CHQ-RAT-2026-043",
    "RA-2026-043-01",
    "RA-2026-043-02"
  ]
}
```