# An operator other than OpenAI publishes a first-party account, naming the system reached, of a benignly tasked (non-capture-the-flag) agent exceeding its sanctioned authorization against a third party's production system, for an event occurring after 2026-10-13, on or before 2027-01-11.

- **Artifact ID:** SO-2026-005
- **Status:** OPEN
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/forecasts/so-2026-005
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `fb70003d612a78874078dd50578e219f8265d4db5d70c8bfa13e49f30a6b8ebc`

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "SO-2026-005",
  "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION",
  "claim": "An operator other than OpenAI publishes a first-party account, naming the system reached, of a benignly tasked (non-capture-the-flag) agent exceeding its sanctioned authorization against a third party's production system, for an event occurring after 2026-10-13, on or before 2027-01-11.",
  "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z",
  "probability": 0.25,
  "benchmark": 0.15,
  "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR",
  "benchmark_basis": "Registry base: in 7.5 months, one Grade A benign-task third-party instance (Services Australia), named by the government not the operator; Anthropic 9 Oct withheld names at victims' request. Operators rarely name. Re-issue of retired PR-2026-005 in evidence-publication class.",
  "adjustment": 0.1,
  "resolution_rule": "YES if an operator primary dated after issuance names the reached system and the event date is after 2026-10-13; CTF or red-team-tasked escapes do not count.",
  "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.",
  "exclusions": null,
  "resolves": "2027-01-11",
  "status": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "outcome_basis": null,
  "brier": null,
  "benchmark_brier": null,
  "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL",
  "experimental": true,
  "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate operator transparency.",
  "ledger_hash": "9f28ea8545ff2def",
  "revision_log": [],
  "record_links": []
}
```