# Google or Irregular publishes a first-party account (blog, report or system-card section) of the May 2026 Gemini evaluation reaching real third-party systems, on or before 2027-01-11.

- **Artifact ID:** SO-2026-003
- **Status:** OPEN
- **Public record:** https://record.cybersecurityhq.com/forecasts/so-2026-003
- **Machine-record SHA-256:** `7965d68f27f552eec4ec9311c85c5ed615ec240f7c471703184147c2b0490c28`

## Complete structured record

```json
{
  "id": "SO-2026-003",
  "class": "EVIDENCE_PUBLICATION",
  "claim": "Google or Irregular publishes a first-party account (blog, report or system-card section) of the May 2026 Gemini evaluation reaching real third-party systems, on or before 2027-01-11.",
  "issued": "2026-10-13T12:30:00Z",
  "probability": 0.35,
  "benchmark": 0.33,
  "benchmark_kind": "ANALYST_PRIOR",
  "benchmark_basis": "Base rate from the three operators with escape incidents: OpenAI and Anthropic published primaries within 2 to 11 weeks of discovery; Google has published nothing in 20 weeks. 1 of 3 outcomes still open; prior 1/3 adjusted down for elapsed silence.",
  "adjustment": 0.02,
  "resolution_rule": "YES if a page on a google.com, deepmind.google or irregular.com domain, dated after issuance, describes the incident in the first person.",
  "admissibility": "Only publications dated after 2026-10-13T12:30Z count; for EVENT-class, only events occurring after that timestamp count. Evidence pre-dating issuance resolves the forecast RETROSPECTIVE_DISCOVERY, not YES.",
  "exclusions": null,
  "resolves": "2027-01-11",
  "status": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "outcome_basis": null,
  "brier": null,
  "benchmark_brier": null,
  "resolution_source": "EXTERNAL",
  "experimental": true,
  "false_positive_cost": "Over-forecast would overstate disclosure pressure on operators.",
  "ledger_hash": "54926196de25df3d",
  "revision_log": [],
  "record_links": []
}
```